well, it's the second jewel of the triple crown, and is it just me, or does this preakness seem like one where no one cares who wins? this field is rather shallow, so any analysis must begin with the favorite, funny cide. much like war emblem last year, he rode a great trip to victory in the Derby. so the key question is this- is there any reason to believe that funny cide will regress two weeks later? i think the answer is simple- NO. yes, he got a perfect trip in the derby, but he looked like he could have taken the field around again at the finish, just like war emblem. i don't see any of the horses who finished behind him in the derby able to turn the tables, so i'll look at the new shooters.
keep this in mind, most of the new shooters are new precisely because their connections didn't believe they belonged in the derby. so what's changed? not much. the only intriguing horse is senor swinger, who looked visually impressive winning on the ky oaks undercard. well, making the swooping move on the turf, does not a G1 dirt horse make, so i'm very skeptical. cherokee's boy is a nice little horse, but he's just too slow to win. foufa's warrior exits the senor swinger race and the same reservations apply. kissin saint is the second most interesting newcomer as he has the looks of a horse who will get better with age/distance. that said, he's too slow to win at this point without a perfect trip. i hate ten cents a shine- if he wins, i lose. midway road is another new face; he comes off a very impressive allowance win, and made a big move in the grade 2 ky jockey club stakes before flattening out in the drive. he's bred up and down for the goo, so if he moves up, he make sneak into the tri at a big number. new york hero has speed but don't think he wants any part of this distance at this class level. that leaves peace rules. he's never struck me as a true distance horse, but he's run an honest race in every start in his career and it's clear he can reach the 104 area in the beyer dept. that's normally good enough only to hit the board and not win the classics, and he reminds me a lot of free house- game as hell but not quite good enough to win a classic race unless he gets a total pace break- i.e., he's gets to run loose on the lead. as mentioned earlier, there's not a ton of speed in here and he should clear pretty easily. that said, funny cide should be right behind him and 'cide's given every indication that the derby did not knock him out. i'm going to play funny cide at 2/1 or better (he was a remarkable 5/1 in the advance wagering earlier).
sorry, all that analysis for the chalk, but i think he's your winner. i hope he does win- it's good for racing and i'll be first in line to bet against him in the belmont when empire maker and a few fresh faces with legitimate shots (like dynever and political risk) will have dead aim on a tired funny cide.
will post hollywood and undercard analysis later.
keep this in mind, most of the new shooters are new precisely because their connections didn't believe they belonged in the derby. so what's changed? not much. the only intriguing horse is senor swinger, who looked visually impressive winning on the ky oaks undercard. well, making the swooping move on the turf, does not a G1 dirt horse make, so i'm very skeptical. cherokee's boy is a nice little horse, but he's just too slow to win. foufa's warrior exits the senor swinger race and the same reservations apply. kissin saint is the second most interesting newcomer as he has the looks of a horse who will get better with age/distance. that said, he's too slow to win at this point without a perfect trip. i hate ten cents a shine- if he wins, i lose. midway road is another new face; he comes off a very impressive allowance win, and made a big move in the grade 2 ky jockey club stakes before flattening out in the drive. he's bred up and down for the goo, so if he moves up, he make sneak into the tri at a big number. new york hero has speed but don't think he wants any part of this distance at this class level. that leaves peace rules. he's never struck me as a true distance horse, but he's run an honest race in every start in his career and it's clear he can reach the 104 area in the beyer dept. that's normally good enough only to hit the board and not win the classics, and he reminds me a lot of free house- game as hell but not quite good enough to win a classic race unless he gets a total pace break- i.e., he's gets to run loose on the lead. as mentioned earlier, there's not a ton of speed in here and he should clear pretty easily. that said, funny cide should be right behind him and 'cide's given every indication that the derby did not knock him out. i'm going to play funny cide at 2/1 or better (he was a remarkable 5/1 in the advance wagering earlier).
sorry, all that analysis for the chalk, but i think he's your winner. i hope he does win- it's good for racing and i'll be first in line to bet against him in the belmont when empire maker and a few fresh faces with legitimate shots (like dynever and political risk) will have dead aim on a tired funny cide.
will post hollywood and undercard analysis later.
